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T respite following the ceasefire in Gaza is profound. In Israel, the release of the living hostages has resulted in broad celebration. Throughout Gaza and the West Bank, celebrations are taking place as as many as 2,000 Palestinian prisoners start to be released – although concern remains due to uncertainty about the identities of those released and their destinations. In northern Gaza, residents can now go back to sift through wreckage for the bodies of an believed 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Peace Breakthrough Despite Prior Uncertainty

Just three weeks ago, the probability of a ceasefire seemed unlikely. However it has come into force, and on Monday Donald Trump departed Jerusalem, where he was hailed in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he attended a prestigious peace conference of over 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The plan for peace begun there is set to advance at a meeting in the UK. The US president, cooperating with international partners, did make this deal come to fruition – contrary to, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Aspirations for Sovereignty Moderated by Past Precedents

Hopes that the deal marks the opening phase toward Palestinian statehood are reasonable – but, considering past occurrences, slightly idealistic. It offers no clear path to independence for Palestinians and endangers separating, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the total ruin this war leaves behind. The omission of any timeline for Palestinian self-determination in Mr Trump’s plan undermines vainglorious references, in his Knesset speech, to the “epochal beginning” of a “golden age”.

The US president could not resist polarising and making personal the deal in his speech.

In a moment of ease – with the hostage release, ceasefire and restart of aid – he chose to recast it as a ethical drama in which he exclusively restored Israel’s prestige after supposed betrayal by previous American leaders Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration a year ago having undertaken a similar deal: a ceasefire tied to aid delivery and eventual diplomatic discussions.

Genuine Autonomy Crucial for Sustainable Agreement

A plan that refuses one side substantive control cannot produce sustainable agreement. The halt in hostilities and relief shipments are to be welcomed. But this is still not diplomatic advancement. Without processes guaranteeing Palestinian participation and command over their own organizations, any deal risks perpetuating domination under the rhetoric of peace.

Aid Necessities and Reconstruction Challenges

Gaza’s people crucially depend on humanitarian aid – and sustenance and pharmaceuticals must be the initial concern. But restoration cannot wait. Among 60 million tonnes of wreckage, Palestinians need support repairing homes, educational facilities, medical centers, places of worship and other establishments destroyed by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s provisional leadership to succeed, monetary resources must flow quickly and safety deficiencies be addressed.

Similar to a great deal of Mr Trump’s peace plan, references to an global peacekeeping unit and a suggested “peace council” are alarmingly vague.

International Support and Future Prospects

Strong worldwide endorsement for the Gaza's governing body, permitting it to replace Hamas, is likely the most promising scenario. The enormous suffering of the previous 24 months means the humanitarian imperative for a solution to the conflict is arguably more urgent than ever. But while the truce, the homecoming of the hostages and vow by Hamas to “disarm” Gaza should be recognized as constructive moves, Mr Trump’s history provides scant basis to believe he will accomplish – or feel bound to try. Short-term relief should not be interpreted as that the prospect of a Palestinian state has been advanced.