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Throughout the race for the White House in 2016, Hungary's prime minister was notable as the sole EU chief to back Donald Trump. This alignment was expected, given Mr Orbán's championing of contentious ideas such as great replacement ideology and the suppression of media freedom. Observers have noted that Mr Orbán essentially pioneered the Maga movement, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance Ahead of the Hungarian Vote

Recently, with pivotal polls in Hungary only six months away, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. With Orbán pursues a fifth term in office governing a nation he calls an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party lags in the polls. A visit to Washington yielded beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Although earlier instructing European nations on the imperative to stop all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and warning of restrictions against countries continuing to buy Russian oil, Donald Trump agreed to grant a unique waiver for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the Trump administration also pledged to provide a “financial shield” to Budapest if it runs into any later issues, given that EU institutions is still blocking substantial EU funds to the nation on grounds of rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this arrangement remain vague. But Donald Trump has shown his willingness to help out like-minded partners as the US granted a $20bn emergency credit line to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. Although Orbán failed to obtain a presidential tour to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting still proved a productive session.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, the US president's move probably further underlined the international consequences of the forthcoming polls, before which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, enjoys a comfortable lead in the polls. Heads of state know not to look for reliable policies from the US government, and have grown used to the American leader's moves to diminish the European Union. Yet the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to phase out imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, these two countries, have contributed more than ten billion pounds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to hinder advancement in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the international forums continues to be a major hurdle.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has avoided vowing a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while stressing the need for the country to begin operating as a positive member state. After enduring repeated disruptions, the European Union can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to core EU ideals, such as the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a humiliating embarrassment for the EU. His continued obstructionism on Ukraine could harm its long-term safety.